PM’s Japan tour: All eyes on the nuclear issue

Indo-Asean FTA set to miss another deadline
Madhur Singh
New Delhi, December 6
WHEN PRIME Minister Manmohan Singh visits Japan from December 13 to 16, strategic cooperation and comprehensive economic partnership will be high on the agenda. However, the real issue worth watching will be civilian nuclear cooperation – whether or not Japan will announce its support for the Indo-US nuclear deal, and whether it will announce any programmes for bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation.
According to Foreign Secretary Shiv Shankar Menon, who spoke to mediapersons today before the PM’s tour, nuclear cooperation is an "ongoing conversation" between India and Japan. He did, however, say, "The PM’s visit is likely to have substantive outcomes".
There are reasons enough to be optimistic on this front. Indo-Japanese relations have been on an upswing since former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to India in 2000. The pace has picked up since the announcement of the Eight-fold Initiative during former PM Junichiro Koizumi’s visit in April last year. "India is on Japan’s radar much more than it has been in the past," says Prof Brij Tankha from the Department of East Asian Studies, DU.
Moreover, given the evolving geo-political realities – the growing closeness between India and the US in the light of Japan’s own special relationship with the US, as well as the antagonism between Japan and China over several issues including the Yasukuni shrine and the South China Sea – Japan may be inclined to display this significant gesture. It has been trying to balance China by supporting India in various regional forums, including the East Asian Summit.
Also, given Japan’s nationalist – some analysts say militarist – turn, which precedes the election of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan may want to take a less stringent line towards India’s nuclear programme.
However, Prof H.S. Prabhakar from the Centre for East Asian Studies, JNU, opines that given Japan’s history and its unswerving championship of the non-proliferation order, it may refrain from giving a clear nod to India’s nuclear programme and may instead opt for some sort of a half measure.
Whichever way the nuclear issue pans out, India will have reason to smile in the shape of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which will be aimed at boosting not only bilateral trade but also Japanese FDI into India. So far, China gets about thrice as much FDI from Japan ($6.5 bn) as does India ($2 bn). According to a study by Assocham, the visit is likely to push Indo-Japan trade to $ 12 bn by 2010, up from the current figure of $7 bn.
India and Japan will also utilise this tour to further their strategic and military ties. Cooperation on infrastructure projects, S&T and reform of multilateral institutions including the UN will also be on the agenda.
Meanwhile, at the Indo-Asean Summit in the Philippine resort town of Cebu on December 12, the Prime Minister’s pet project, the Indo-Asean FTA, will still be on the negotiating table. After repeatedly hitting roadblocks over negative lists and rules of origin, the FTA is stuck on four main items – crude and refined palm oil, tea, coffee and textiles. According to Dr Nagesh Kumar from RIS, a think-tank, India has ceded more ground in this particular FTA than it has in any other. Asean, however, has refused to budge on issues on which it has compromised in other FTAs. For instance, agricultural goods are excluded from the intra-Asean FTA (AFTA).
Shorn of the FTA, the summit will be a rather lacklustre affair, consisting of a review of ongoing projects under the ‘partnership in peace, progress and shared prosperity’ signed two years ago and discussions on the future directions these should take.
While anti-terror cooperation is expected to be high on the Asean agenda, it does not figure prominently on the Indo-Asean agenda. Neither does energy security.
Energy cooperation will, however, be the highlight of the second East Asian Summit (EAS) on December 13. The EAS brings together the 10 Asean members, plus the three additional members of the Asean Plus Three (APT) – China, South Korea and Japan – as well as India, Australia and New Zealand. Although the organisation has the ambitious goal of creating an Asian Economic Community a la the EU, how much significance members are giving it is evident from the fact that the summit has been assigned only half a day. During this time, the leaders are scheduled to discuss energy as well as finance, education, cooperation in dealing with natural disasters and bird flu.
Overall, it will be the second leg of the PM’s tour which will be worth looking out for.