Re-rise of India

ASK JOHN Ralston Saul about the rise of India, and he will promptly correct you: “the re-rise, you mean.” Indian civilization has, for millennia, been “used to dealing with complexity with methods of its own. And it has come so far by drawing upon itself and moving at its own pace. It is probably the only post-colonial state that has survived without a coup d’etat or an economic collapse.”

And now, it is re-writing the rules of globalisation, engaging with the West on its own terms. Saul’s latest book is entitled The Collapse of Globalism and the Reinvention of the World. Among the evidence he cites for the collapse of globalism is the rise of India (and China) in a manner contrary to the rules of globalisation as defined by the West, and has hence resisted easy categorisation. “The economic idea behind globalism and globalisation comprised a deterministic belief in the weakening of the State and the ascendancy of the market, which would take economics out of the purview of the State. We see none of this taking place in India or China. They are, in fact, rebuilding the ‘nation-State’,” he says.

India’s demographic outlook, says Saul, is more promising than China’s – India is a largely young society, while China is already an ageing one. Moreover, India has first-rate institutions – judiciary, free press, and democracy, “however flawed”. Saul asserts that although India’s rise is impressive – given the constraints it faces in the form of its well-entrenched caste structure, language politics, regional question, and so on – for this growth to last, it has to be more inclusive. At the moment, there are some successful sectors, a small percentage of people growing richer, and some expanding cities. However, the wealth has not spread to the vast majority of the population. And herein, he believes, lies India’s biggest challenge. “Historically, the rich States of today set off on a path of economic growth only when they began to invest in infrastructure and education for all,” he asserts, adding, “This is the kind of revolution that makes a richer, more equitable society – not a communist/ fascist/ militarist revolution.”

This revolution is led by a critical mass of the elites who break ranks with their peers and take it upon themselves to bring about change by using power responsibly. “This has been the experience in Europe, Canada and the US. This is what the Communist Party of China is now doing through its five-point plan that gives precedence to domestic over international issues, to the interior and rural areas over the coastal and urban ones, to society over economy, and to nature over man,” he says.

Only when wealth is fairly well spread out does the wealth of a nation solidify to form a strong base for further growth. “A healthy, well-educated population is the best wealth creating tool a country can have,” he says.

Does he agree with the possibility of an emerging India-China “duopoly”? “It depends on how unstable the world becomes as India and China grow in importance. Perhaps they will end up as rivals. But, who knows, they may just cannily realise that their interests are best served through cooperation.”