End of Days

FIRST, A grouse. Why do environmentalists always sound like headmasters ticking off unruly children? And why should a book putting forth a sound argument backed by hard, scientific evidence read like the Old Testament? And bear the title The Revenge of Gaia, like a B-grade thriller?
Other than the author’s writing style — and perhaps the unfortunate lack of a stern editor — this is an excellent book with real potential to shake us out of our collective and individual inertia about the state of the Earth, about what we are doing to it and what it may soon do to us.
An eminent scientist, James Lovelock is well known among Earth scientists and Greens of all hues, and is considered a bit of an eccentric genius. His Gaia hypothesis — that the Earth (Gaia is the Greek goddess of the Earth) is like a self-regulating super-organism whose living and non-living components constantly act and react on each other — is now fairly mainstream. It comprises a critique of, and an advancement over, Darwin’s theory of evolution by factoring the non-living components of the environment into the equation. It is thanks to this synthesis that we understand much more clearly today the links between, for instance, algal growth, cloud formation and global warming.
Lovelock co-authored the Gaia hypothesis while working for Nasa in the Sixties, and has since revised and whetted many of his own and his contemporaries’ insights on environmental evolution. Which is what makes this book such a compelling read. Lovelock is armed with razor-sharp facts to back his argument. We’ve all heard, and queasily shaken off, the argument that our ignorant and callous exploitation of the Earth has pushed Gaia dangerously close to the ‘tipping point’, at which it will no longer be able to support humankind — at least not all 6 billion-plus of us, and certainly not the way we live today. What is harder to come by is a clear, layperson-language description of just how and why this is happening, and the exact scale of the problem. This is what this book provides.
Despite the generally depressing tone of the book, Lovelock holds out hope for delaying, if not averting, this ecological Doomsday. He dismisses ‘sustainable development’ and arguments for renewable sources of energy as misguided, and chastises human hubris in thinking we can ‘manage’ the Earth system. Yet, he himself doesn’t shirk from suggesting a whole gamut of steps to do just that — from practical ones like adopting nuclear and geothermal power to enable a “powered descent” to a stage where we consume lesser energy; to futuristic ones like giant sunshades in space and tiny stratospheric balloons to deflect sunlight; to rather outlandish ones like producing food synthetically like medicines so as to turn all farmland back into forest.
Whether or not one agrees with some of the more dire prognoses and suggested remedies or not, Lovelock does leave one convinced of our own culpability, the folly of the liberal emphasis on exclusively ‘human’ rights, and the need for action. He argues that there is a need to significantly alter not only our lifestyles but also the way we perceive the Earth, to evolve an “instinctive environmentalism”. Only when we begin to perceive ourselves a part of Gaia and empathise with its fate, will we be able to give up such costly luxuries as cheap air travel and central heating/air-conditioning.
So as you shiver under a blanket in your AC room this summer, read this book.

So you still think it's just an African problem?

WHILE INDIA has been rooting for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, there is little evidence of its readiness to play a bigger role in international affairs. Witness, for instance, how the alarming developments in the Horn of Africa have gone almost without comment. An Islamist movement called the Conservative Council of Islamic Courts (formerly Islamic Courts Union) has wrested power in Somalia. The new regime, supported by traditional Sharia courts and businessmen keen to beget some semblance of law and order, has been in control of Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia since it defeated a rival alliance of secular, US-backed warlords on June 5. In addition to establishing the rule of law, the new regime is determined to impose a Wahhabi-style interpretation of the Sharia as the law of the land. Having grown out of a grassroots movement, the regime enjoys a measure of popular support in the almost entirely-Sunni Somalia. Though an Islamist regime in itself is not a security concern — the international community is comfortable enough with Saudi Arabia — Somalia’s past record is worrisome.
It has long been a fertile recruiting and operating ground for Osama bin Laden and his ilk, and is linked to several attacks on US and Israeli targets in east Africa. Equally disturbingly, the leader of the new majlis al-shura (consultative council), Hassan Dahir Aweys, figures on the US State Department’s list released after 9/11 for alleged links with bin Laden while the latter was living in Sudan in the early Nineties. The situation has caused alarm in the West, and shown in relief how the international community’s policy towards Somalia has failed. The US has been cagey about direct involvement since its disastrous misadventures in Somalia in October 1993. It has, however, been backing the secular warlords. The UN withdrew from Somalia in 1995. The transitional government formed in 2003 under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development controls only a small part of the country. Following the latest developments, an International Contact Group on Somalia has been set up, and has called for talks between the transitional government and the Islamist regime. However, initial signs have not been promising — the transitional cabinet resigned on July 27 after talks failed over the role of Ethiopia and over whether foreign peacekeepers should be brought in. Neighbouring countries have got sucked into the mire, with Ethiopia sending in troops against the Islamists, and Eritrea providing arms to the Islamists.
Forging peace in Somalia is going to be treacherous terrain. However, the international community must take its share of the responsibility if Somalia is to be prevented from becoming a Taliban-style rogue State. And seeing how global terrorism has already caught India in its web, it cannot afford to be a mere onlooker.

New trade winds

DOHA ROUND talks are finally off, and any progress seems unlikely for months, if not years. With the talks goes the chance to boost world income and raise millions out of poverty. The WTO in its present form is way too unwieldy – due to its sheer size, the enormity of the task and the multitude of conflicting interests – and biased in favour of the richer players. Its reform would take a reform of the underlying structure of international trade – a contentious, long-drawn out process. Meanwhile, it makes sense for players to keep open the regional and preferential trade routes.

Given the dismal state of the multilateral trading system, Indian trade policy which envisages pursuance of all tracks – multilateral, bilateral, regional – is well-suited to the needs of the times. For instance, the two proposals announced last week – India’s trilateral FTA with Mercosur and SACU and the comprehensive economic cooperation agreement (CECA) with the EU – make sound economic and strategic sense. The FTA with Mercosur and SACU will bring together the economic and trade powerhouses of the developing world – Brazil, Argentina, India and South Africa (besides Uruguay, Paraguay, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland). Already, trade between these countries is expanding steadily – e.g., trade between India, Brazil and South Africa in 2005 stood at $2.34bn, double the 2004 figure of $1.207bn. India is well placed to benefit from the vast Mercosur market, with its focus markets and products schemes that offer WTO-compliant export incentives and the special concessions to companies trading with this region. The FTA is also strategically significant as Brazil and South Africa are members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Moreover, improving ties with African countries is important given India’s bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council.

The proposed CECA – an agreement on trade in goods and services, investment, movement of service providers and taxation – meanwhile, will cement India’s relationship with the EU, its largest trading partner. Strategically, it is a good move given that the EU has proven more adaptable regarding agriculture issues at the WTO. This pact will also be significant none the least because it will enable Indian professionals to work in the EU. Overall, these moves show that India’s foreign trade policy is on the right track.

I wanna go to Vanuatu

What does it take to get a spring in your step, a sparkle in your eye and a song on your lip? Ask the Ni-Vanuatu, residents of the tiny South Pacific atoll that perches happily atop the 178-nation ‘Happy Planet Index’, and they’ll tell you that happiness doesn’t cost the earth. These 209,000-odd lotus-eaters apparently thrive on tropical surf, sunshine, and rum-n-coca-cola, taking a break now and then to earn some dough from small-scale agriculture and tourism. As do their kindred souls in the Central American nations that take up the top 10 places in the index.

The index, compiled by the New Economics Foundation (NEF) on the basis of consumptions levels, life expectancy and happiness – and not national economic parameters like GDP – suggests that people can live long and happy lives without consuming vast quantities of the earth’s resources. Take the US, for instance – the resource-guzzler gets the 150th rank. And yes, money doesn’t have much to do with it either – Japan, the world’s second-largest economy which ranks 11th on the UNDP Human Development Index 2005, gets the 95th place in the present survey. On the bottom 10 places are African and Eastern European countries, where extreme poverty and political turmoil seem to be taking its toll.

The survey clearly makes a case for living within our ecological means, which should gladden the hearts of Greens and Gaia theorists who warn that to enable people around the world to consume as much as the rich, industrialised economies, several Earths would be required. The NEF offers a cocktail of steps to a happier humankind – eradication of extreme poverty and hunger, recognition of the contribution of unpaid work, and economic polices that work within environmental limits.

Too much of a good thing?

How should one react to the fact that one-fifth of all humans to have lived in the last six thousand years are living today? As the UNFPA observed World Population Day yesterday, there were 6.5bn of us around to celebrate, with the figure rising at rates unprecedented prior to the 20th century. The glass may seem half full or half empty, depending not only on your ideological position but also on which part of the globe you happen to inhabit.

Unlike what Malthusian doomsayers may argue, a high population figure in itself is not a problem. Japan, for instance, succeeded in converting its high density of population into an asset. Now comfortably perched among the ranks of advanced economies, it is battling an extremely low population growth rate, fuelling worries of a bleak future with a tiny working-age population supporting a vast majority of dependents. The situation in many developed economies is similar, inducing their governments to offer lucrative social security benefits to people opting to have children. Rather counter-intuitively, it seems people want fewer children when they can provide for them. Also, generally speaking, the better a society’s gender empowerment record, the lower its population growth rate. Take Taiwan for instance, where nearly half the women of marriageable age are single and childless.

On the other end of the spectrum are developing countries like India, still trying to rein in their population growth rates. Home to half the world’s young population of 3.5bn, developing countries are struggling to provide health, education and other facilities to their ever-swelling ranks and to create out of them a talent pool that will fuel their development. However, one of the reasons why some experts are more optimistic about India’s longterm growth prospects as against China’s is that India has a more balanced population composition, unlike China’s which has been severely skewed by the one-child policy. This is not to say that unchecked population growth is desirable. The Gaia Theory and the Doomsday Argument warn that the end of humanity may be nearer than we think, brought on not by food shortages but through dangerously high pollution levels. Proponents of family planning may well have the last word.

Farewell to illicit arms

Five years after adopting a UN Programme of Action to tackle illicit trade in small arms and light weapons (SALW), representatives of governments and civil society are meeting in Geneva to assess the progress made and the challenges ahead. Globally, illicit trade makes up 25% of the $4bn SALW market. Small arms, many of them manufactured or obtained illegally, cause between 80,000 and 108,000 deaths in conflicts and 200,000 deaths in non-conflict areas worldwide. SALW contribute to violence, which disrupts public life and social services, and impedes development in the long run. In addition, Studies by the International Action Network on Small Arms show that an increase in armed gangs glamorises gun culture and macho behaviour, thereby increasing sexual assaults on women.

Given that the arms industry is high politicised, with the military-industrial complex enjoying enormous leverage in developed countries, arms pushing is a phenomenon akin to drug pushing, as Amartya Sen says in a recent article. Various studies have pointed out that leading arms manufacturers in Europe, the US, China and Russia have sold arms to extremely poor and conflict-prone countries like Sudan and Liberia, where they are almost certain to cause human rights abuse. Hence, the UN Programme aims to encourage countries to strengthen national legislation to control illegal SALW trade, and to ensure that arms are not sold to countries that cannot afford their economic, social or human rights costs. At the same time, efforts are afoot to harmonise marking and record-keeping, and to foster cooperation in tracing of weapons. Nations today exist in a situation of shared vulnerability, and cooperation in such areas is pragmatic and far-sighted.

For India, which has an estimated 40m (mostly illicit) firearms, it is critical to check smuggling of SALW, the bulk of which reach insurgent movements and criminal gangs across the country. The government has already taken up the matter with Bangladesh and Myanmar, and should engage Pakistan too. Steps must be taken to shut down the numerous katta factories dotting the hinterland and more broad-ranging incentives, or perhaps, disincentives provided to leach away the illicit arms already in circulation.

Urbanisation of poverty

The World Urban Forum that got underway in Vancouver on Monday comes at a time when the world is poised on the brink of historic demographic changes. In 2007, for the first time in history, more people will begin to live in cities than in villages. More pertinently for India, the UN Habitat Report released on the occasion predicts that Mumbai and New Delhi, both already ‘mega-cities’ with populations above 10 million, will become ‘meta-cities’ housing 20 million people by 2020. Less evident but equally worrisome is the fact that a large proportion of the rural-to-urban migration in India, as elsewhere in the developing world, will take place in smaller cities and towns, which are even more inadequately equipped to handle the influx.

Despite India’s ‘economic boom’, the average citizen is still struggling to get basic facilities like water, electricity, health, education and public transport. Increased migration to cities will undoubtedly put even more pressure on urban infrastructure. To take the example of Delhi, its demand for power, already outstripping supply, is set to grow by nearly 5 per cent each year for the next decade. There is already a gap of 150m litres between the quantity of water demanded by and supplied to Delhi. This infrastructure gap exists across India, with some 25 percent urban dwellers being without electricity, 23 percent without access to toilets and 37 percent without potable water in their dwellings. Even more worrying is the growth of slums, which often exist right next to uber luxe malls and multiplexes. It reflects poorly on ‘India Shining’ that Mumbai, one of the most dynamic economic centres of the country, is home to one of the largest slums in the world, which houses more people than Norway! Studies have shown that slum-dwellers often live in worse conditions than villagers. Lack of water, sanitation and health facilities, and exposure to pollution makes them most susceptible to health hazards.

Our cities are engines of sustained growth, as the Prime Minister aptly put it while announcing the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission last year. It’s time we paid more attention to their condition. Perhaps the World Urban Forum should serve as a clarion call to our policy-makers.

Emergency Communication System

The Mumbai blasts have once again exposed the complete absence of a national emergency communications system in the country. If you had any friends or family in Mumbai on 7/11, you will know how the telephone network all but collapsed that day. Both landline exchanges and mobile phone networks were overwhelmed. As on previous occasions like the attack on the Sankat Mochan Temple in Benares, people ended up sending text messages to TV channels in the hope that their loved ones would see them and know of their situation. That phones did not work on 7/11 is not surprising – the experience in London after 7/7 was similar. No matter how well-equipped, telephone exchanges and mobile networks can only handle a certain amount of call attempts and traffic at any given time.

In times of emergency, what is needed is a comprehensive information base that is accurate, reliable and easily accessible for all. There is a strong case for an Integrated Emergency Information/Communication System that would provide information in case of national, regional or local emergencies. The essential features of such a system would have to be cost-effectiveness, accessibility, good geographical coverage, short response time and ability to support multiple data sources. As such, existing technologies can be utilised to good effect, and the system need not be expensive or complicated. It would be best to put together a mix of fixed-line and mobile telephony, FM, TV, Internet and possibly WiFi so that in case of failure of one the others are still functional.

It would cater for two basic needs. First, it would provide emergency alerts and information to the public at large. This could be done via broadcast systems, which is not difficult considering that the government already runs FM and TV channels. Ideally there should be a designated channel or frequency, known to all members of public. Second, it would provide specific information to individual members of the public. This could be done through emergency telephone lines, whose numbers should be properly advertised, and through an online information network that individuals could plug into. Whatever method is chosen should be standardised and well advertised, so that the public knows where to look for information in case of an emergency.

Reverse logic

Administrative Reforms Commission Chairperson Veerappa Moily had won our approval in these columns last week for suggesting that subjects concerning the country’s security be put under the purview of the National Security Act and that the Official Secrets Act be scrapped. However, Mr Moily’s latest recommendation, that the armed forces be taken out of the ambit of the Right to Information Act, contradicts the very reasoning that underpins the earlier suggestion. Arguing that the army deserves the same treatment as the paramilitary forces that lie outside the ambit of the Act, Mr Moily has applied a bizarre reverse logic which is akin to setting off a race to the bottom with regard to transparency and accountability.

Ostensibly, the paramilitary forces are out of the purview of the RTI Act in order to safeguard information critical to the country’s security. However, the Act contains sufficient in-built provisions to set such worries at rest. Section 1.8 of the Act provides for the withholding of information whose disclosure might “affect the sovereignty and integrity of India, the security, strategic, scientific or economic interests of the State, relation with foreign State or lead to incitement of an offence”. What excuse is there, then, to exempt the military and paramilitary forces from the purview of the Act?

In recent years, the Indian Army’s reputation has taken a severe beating with regard to at least two significant issues – corruption and human rights violation. Several instances have come to light exposing a web of corruption running through the ranks of the army, with horizontal linkages to the bureaucracy and politicians. In addition, allegations of human rights violations, from Kashmir, Manipur and elsewhere, have grown in number. Nevertheless, national and state human rights commissions have been barred from investigating army and paramilitary personnel. It is precisely to remedy this situation that the RTI Act must be applied to the military and paramilitary forces. All human and political rights derive from the basic right to know. If the RTI Act is to fulfil its professed aim of creating greater transparency in the functioning of government agencies, containing corruption and enhancing accountability, the way to go is to bring both the military and paramilitary forces under its ambit.

At least they agree on the colour

Diplomacy they say, is war by other means. So the Arab and Israelis have been slugging it out at the International Committee of the Red Cross with the Zionist state demanding recognition of the Red Star of David as an ICRC symbol since 1949. The existing symbols, it was argued, bore unwelcome religious implications – Christian in case of the Red Cross and Islamic in case of the Red Crescent. The Israeli demand was steadfastly denied, as much for ideological reasons as for unswerving Arab opposition. A little dose of US-style arm-twisting was also applied – from 2000, the US Red Cross withheld $45m in dues to the ICRC in protest against the denial of Israel’s demand. After much diplomatic haggling, a compromise was reached in December 2005, whereby it was decided that the new symbol would be a ‘neutral’ ‘Red Crystal’, and not the Star of David.

So the International Committee of the Red Cross formally adopted the ‘Red Crystal’ as its official symbol on June 22. However, to save face (or to get its own back), the ICRC, while granting recognition to the ‘Red Crystal’ and thereby admitting the Israeli Magen David Adom, also admitted the Palestine Red Crescent Society by making an exception to its statute that grants membership only to relief societies from sovereign states.

The move has set a precedent of questionable merit. It detracts from the basic idea of having a single emblem to mark vehicles and buildings protected on humanitarian grounds. Some would argue that it goes against the ICRC’s basic tenet of apolitical humanitarianism. After all, shouldn’t religion be kept out of relief services? In a situation where religio-nationalistic feelings are strong, wouldn’t it polarise, when the need is to unite? Moreover, it remains to be seen how far the ICRC will go to be politically correct. Attempts have been made in the past to have other religious symbols recognised. Persia’s Qajar Shah had mooted, and got recognition for, a ‘Red Lion and Sword’ against the ‘Russian’ cross and the ‘Ottoman’ crescent. There were demands by Sri Lanka in 1957 and India in 1977 to establish a Red Swastika. Hope the Sangh Parivar isn’t reading this.

A cop and a gentleman

DELHI TRAFFIC police are set to do a London Bobby on poor, unsuspecting Delhi-ites. Imagine what it would do to the innocent citizens of the capital if they were to be accosted by courteous, English-speaking cops. Their credulity would be stretched to the limit, and there would have to be prolonged self-pinching sessions before suspension of disbelief is achieved. But that’s exactly the kind of scenario Delhi-ites may actually have to prepare for if the British High Commission’s offer to help Delhi Police revamp its image should bear fruit.

Delhi’s top cops seem to have realised that Delhi Traffic Police’s present attitude will not do when they are called upon to deal with foreign guests at the Commonwealth Games of 2010. Nitpickers will say there is an implicit admission here that their attitude is quite alright for Delhi-ites themselves. But let’s give credit where it’s due – this is a positive step. As many civil society groups have demanded from time to time, Delhi Police – just like police across the country – need to be trained to see their role as one of providing a public service rather than lording over the citizenry. Among other things, this includes a need for gender sensitisation of police personnel right through the hierarchy, as well as the inculcation of a strong service ethic.

So far, however, Delhi Police has been better known for coining pithy slogans – ‘With You, For You. Always’ and ‘Citizens First’ – than for real reform. But fancy slogans do not a good police force make; more concrete efforts are needed on the ground. Which is why the present move is a step in the right direction, albeit a small one. We can only hope that this crash course in personality development and etiquette – largely cosmetic improvements – will be followed by more substantial efforts aimed at improving the quality of policing in the capital. Meanwhile, Delhi residents can look forward to the day when traffic cops say a cheerful ‘please’ and ‘thank you’.